Monday, April 13, 2009

Predictions for Madurai general seat -2009 elections

Luckily I bit the bullet and took the tough decision to spend some time to do this dumb analysis for poll prediction for Madurai constituency. I took the numbers from last elections( both voters and percentage of votes shared by individual political parties). This time simple maths shows that AIADMK has th upper hand. I have added a rough 30000 additional voters from the last elections.

Since DMK government also is almost 3 years old and it is inherently plagued by the worsening power scenario, increase in price of house hold items, it has to have the anti-incumbency factor coming against it and with same assumptions little doubt for congress. The other factor I missed explicitly is the vote share of DMDK. Even going by the 8% split( for DMK or ADMK??) ADMK emerges as clear leader. Unless for large scale rigging by DMK goondas Madurai goes to AIADMK this time... Refer the charts...see ya...!!!
Votes polled by parties in 2004
(based on overall %age across TN)
Expected votes polled by individual parties
(considering +/- swings)
Predicted result
(DMDK factor excluded)

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