Monday, April 13, 2009

Predictions for Madurai general seat -2009 elections

Luckily I bit the bullet and took the tough decision to spend some time to do this dumb analysis for poll prediction for Madurai constituency. I took the numbers from last elections( both voters and percentage of votes shared by individual political parties). This time simple maths shows that AIADMK has th upper hand. I have added a rough 30000 additional voters from the last elections.

Since DMK government also is almost 3 years old and it is inherently plagued by the worsening power scenario, increase in price of house hold items, it has to have the anti-incumbency factor coming against it and with same assumptions little doubt for congress. The other factor I missed explicitly is the vote share of DMDK. Even going by the 8% split( for DMK or ADMK??) ADMK emerges as clear leader. Unless for large scale rigging by DMK goondas Madurai goes to AIADMK this time... Refer the charts...see ya...!!!
Votes polled by parties in 2004
(based on overall %age across TN)
Expected votes polled by individual parties
(considering +/- swings)
Predicted result
(DMDK factor excluded)

Thursday, April 09, 2009

Indian Elections 2009

Usually It is number game in Tamil Nadu and this time for my part I tried looking into some basic docs from election commission of india and tried doing that. Most striking thing is that ADMK had the biggest poll percentage in the last two parliamentary elections. This is quite surprising for me at the moment. Inspite of the largest support base Jaya is managing to garner in Tamil Nadu it is Kalaingar who is calling the shots in centre for the last ten years. Hard to beleive but it indeed is a fact. DMK was one of the key ally in 1999-2004 NDA government and in 2004-09 UPA government. This can be attributed to nothing else but the explicit shrewedness of Dr.Kalaingar.

He is the one who can demand key portfolios of choice( plain english - which will fetch money ) in Ministry and still manages to be minority state government with mere 96 MLA's in Tamil Nadu. He is the one who can stab the back of his own grand children for his scions. He is the one who can be part of both BJP and INC which is literally North and south pole of Indian politics. The chart above shows the poll percentage of the major TN political parties in 2004 and 1999. It's written on the wall. Whatsoever the whether is, People stick to their party with a minimal swing and whoever is smart enough to be in right side gains point. The only catch here is how DMDK will affect this numbers??

I beleive TN voters are smart enough to have separate unrelated patterns for assembly and parliament. One of my good friend commented to vote for ADMK, since patroising DMDK will eventually help DMK. Will this holds good whole of TN? Will this be the line of thinking of the median voters? only results can tell.

Mean while I will work more on these numbers and try for a bunch of postings about the probable tally constituent wise. Let me see how it comes....

p.s: Number source ELection COmmission's statistics doc available in the site